You know the quote “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take”?
Wayne Gretzky (and Michael Scott) meant it as encouragement to go for it—take the shot, try.
That can be helpful for the chronic hesitators, but it’s not great advice for everyone.
Every shot has an opportunity cost. In surfing, knowing which waves not to paddle for is every bit as important as knowing which ones you should.
There are good waves, better waves, and the rare great ones. But you’ll miss them if you spend your energy chasing closeouts and longshots.
I was reminded of this yesterday by an Instagram post from Hydromind, who coaches surfers. He made a great point about the skill of telling a good wave from a bad one.
The better you become at reading the ocean—spotting the real opportunities and ignoring the junk—the more energy you save for the one wave that actually matters.
Tip #1: Watch the Color
A wave tells you a lot as it stands up. As the angle of the face steepens, the water darkens. A darker face is closer to breaking.
If you chase waves that are still reflecting the color of the sky, you’ll waste a lot of paddles on waves that were never going to break for you.
Tip #2: Line Up With the Peak
Find the peak and look for a workable shoulder. A 40-yard-wide “peak” usually means a closeout. But a defined peak with a sloping shoulder—especially one that’s just starting to break—often sets you up for a long, clean ride down the beach.
And because this is a Surphilosophy article: the metaphor is the message.
Don’t chase marginal opportunities. Don’t burn yourself out going after things that will never amount to much. Let the poor ones pass.
And when the truly great wave swings your way, paddle like hell.
